RR740 - A Monte Carlo approach to joint probability of wave, tide and surge in extreme water level calculations

Extreme Water Level is the total level of the water arising from wave crest, storm surge and tidal level acting in combination with each other throughout an extreme event. Individually, each of these components is relatively well understood. However, the combination of these components is not straightforward and depends on the conditions of the location in question. This study addresses the behaviour of the individual components, their interaction, and their joint probability, leading to the development of a Monte Carlo based approach to the estimation of Extreme Water Level. The study concludes with a review of latest ISO guidance on estimating extreme water levels and a comparison between extreme water level results derived using existing methods, ISO guidance and Monte Carlo simulations.

This report and the work it describes were funded by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE policy.

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Updated 2021-04-23