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PN0920 - UK Case Studies on Quantitative Risk Assessment

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PN0920 - FERA- 2002

Executive Summary

  1. Probabilistic methods of risk assessment take account of the variability and uncertainty that exists in the real world. Current methods are deterministic and take only limited account of variability and uncertainty.
  2. This project used case studies to evaluate the feasibility and benefits of applying probabilistic methods to regulatory assessments for pesticides.
  3. It was concluded that probabilistic methods can be accommodated within EU regulations and could provide a significantly better basis for decision-making, if they are used appropriately.
  4. Basic forms of probabilistic assessment require no more data than current approaches. More sophisticated forms require more data, just as refined deterministic assessments do.
  5. Further work is needed to develop and implement probabilistic methods and to achieve a consensus on how they should be used.

Full Report

UK Case Studies on Quantitative Risk Assessment (pdf, 39 pages).

Further information

Updated 2016-12-21