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Impact of the change in RIDDOR reporting requirement to over-7-day reporting on reported injury rates for employees

In order to estimate the effect of the change in the RIDDOR reporting requirement from over-three-day to over-seven-day injuries, a time series modelling approach has been implemented. The estimation process uses an ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model with quarterly employee injury rate data to fit a step function defined at April 2012. The coefficient of this function produces the estimate for the effect of the change.

The modelling suggests that the best estimate of the effect of the change in reporting has been to produce a rate of reported over-seven-day injury that is 29% lower than the over-three-day injury rate (with a 95% confidence interval of 19% to 39%). The modelling suggests that the change did not affect the reporting of major injury.

Using the modelling work, the underlying trend in injury rates has been assessed, taking into account the step change caused by the new reporting requirement. This has been performed for the whole economy series and the major industry sectors (Manufacturing, Construction and Services).

All industry

Analysis indicates that the over-3-day injury rate would have continued to follow the longer-term downward trend observed over recent years.

Manufacturing

Analysis indicates that the trend in the over-3-day injury rate may be beginning to flatten out, following a period of sustained reduction.

Construction

Analysis indicates that the trend in the over-3-day injury rate would have continued to flatten out, as seen in the last couple of years, following a period of sustained reduction.

Services

Analysis indicates that the over-3-day injury rate would have continued to follow the longer-term downward trend observed over recent years.

Quarterly modelled all industry injury rate

Quarterly modelled all industry injury rate

Quarterly modelled manufacturing injury rate

Quarterly modelled manufacturing injury rate

Quarterly modelled construction injury rate

Quarterly modelled construction injury rate

Quarterly modelled services injury rate

Quarterly modelled services injury rate

Updated 2013-09-18