Estimation of the future burden of mesothelioma deaths

Updated statistical modelling of mesothelioma deaths during the period 1968-2001 in males aged 20-89 was used to produce an estimate of the future peak number of mesothelioma deaths to males and females of all ages:

• The annual total number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain is currently predicted to peak between current levels and 2450 deaths during the period 2011 to 2015.
• The updated modelling suggests that annual total number of mesothelioma deaths to males aged 20-89 in Great Britain will peak between current levels and 2100 deaths during the period 2011 to 2015.
• The annual total number of mesothelioma deaths to females in Great Britain is predicted to peak between current levels and 310 deaths, though this estimate is more uncertain since it is derived by simply applying the results for males to the average proportion of deaths among females.
• Around 10 mesothelioma deaths among males aged 90 or over are expected to occur annually during the period of the peak – although this is very uncertain.

Although these projections rest on a number of uncertain (and largely unverifiable) assumptions, the timing and scale of the maximum annual death toll is not highly sensitive to these uncertainties. What is highly uncertain, is the rate at which the numbers will fall after this peak is reached. More information about the methodology for predicting future numbers of mesothelioma deaths is available in the Mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain factsheet.