The estimation of probability of ignition is a key step in the assessment of risk for installations where flammable liquids or gases are stored. Currently, simple models tend to be used, which assume that ignition probability is a function only of release rate, or cloud size, and do not consider location, density or type of ignition source. Ignition sources on hazardous installation plants tend to be better controlled than off-site sources. However, these measures are designed to prevent ignition of mainly small releases within defined hazardous areas. An ignition probability model has been derived to consider larger, catastrophic, releases that may come into contact with on-site sources within non-hazardous areas and buildings.
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