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OTO 2000/021

Calibration of probability of failure estimates made from probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis

Fracture mechanics procedures given in BSI PD6493:1991 and the Draft BS 7910:1999 are based on the concept of the failure assessment diagrams (FAD's). However, validation studies have shown that assessment points falling outside these diagrams do not necessarily represent failure confirming the presence of some modelling uncertainty in the FAD's.This report is aimed at using the results of validation studies to estimate the uncertainty in the Level 2 FAD. Statistical analyses of the validation data is conducted to derive the modelling uncertainty which is then applied in example calculations to explore the effect on failure probability estimates.

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Updated 2010-03-19