Methods currently used in probabilistic inspection analysis for predicting fatigue crack growth in tubular joints in jacket structures are assessed in particular on recent research and development. Considers both SN and fracture mechanics approaches to represent the resistance. Alternative procedures to determine the hot spot stress due to wave loading are examined,considering the following issues: hydrodynamic loading; joint flexibility; the pile -soil flexibility and stress concentration factor. Probabilistic measures of the uncertainty associated with the models and parameters are assessed. Recent information about the probability of crack detection is examined. Evaluates the reliability methodology used to determine the component and systems failure probability. Gives recommendations for improved mechanics and probabilistic modelling.
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