Concerns the uses and abuses of probabilistic methods in structural integrity, in particular the design and assessment of pressure systems. Reviews the development of structural design methods from the earliest building methods, through limit state and partial factor design methods, to probabilistic analysis, and considers their applicability to accessing the integrity of pressure systems. Methods of probabilistic analysis are discussed and key references are identified for further information. The uses of risk and reliability analysis are also discussed, and many of the concerns that are often expressed with the use of reliability and risk analysis methods are examined. Guidelines are presented for regulators and industry to assist in assessing work that incorporates risk and reliability based analysis and arguments.
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