Predicted deaths from mesothelioma

HSE press release E242:03 - 5 December 2003

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) today published updated statistics predicting the future numbers of people likely to die in Britain as a result of mesothelioma, a form of cancer caused by asbestos.

These statistics, put together using the latest modelling techniques, suggest the annual number of deaths will peak at a lower level than previously predicted (published in 1995), and will peak sooner. The number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain (males and females of all ages) is now predicted to peak somewhere between 1,950 and 2,450 annually. The peak is expected between the years 2011 and 2015.

Previously published projections were restricted to men below age 90. Making the same restriction to the current model suggests a peak of between 1,650 and 2,100 deaths, between the years 2011 and 2015.

This updates a projection made in 1995 which suggested an annual peak of between 2,700 and 3,300 deaths around the year 2020.

HSE's Senior Statistician John Hodgson said: "Previous projections have been based on a rather simple statistical model in which mesothelioma deaths were related to age and date of birth. More recent data suggests a different and more complex model is needed to account for the changing pattern of asbestos exposure. This latest analysis suggests a lower estimated peak for mesothelioma deaths than predicted in 1995, occurring sooner. But the total numbers are still substantial."

Notes to editors

1. Mesothelioma is a form of cancer that principally affects the external lining of the lungs (pleura) and lower digestive tract (peritoneum). It has a strong association with exposure to asbestos dust, and the long latency period between first exposure to asbestos and the development and diagnosis of mesothelioma is seldom less than 15 years and can be as long as 60 years. This means that current and predicted death figures reflect exposure many years ago. Most deaths (around 85%) occur in men. Mesothelioma is exceptionally rare in the absence of exposure to asbestos.

2. Asbestosis and asbestos-related lung cancer are not included in the projections. Annual numbers of asbestosis deaths are much lower than the number of mesothelioma deaths. For example, there are likely to have been at least 160 asbestosis deaths in 2001. Annual numbers of asbestos-related lung cancer deaths are estimated to be substantial: between one and two lung cancers for every mesothelioma.

3. Mesothelioma death statistics for Great Britain are derived from HSE's mesothelioma register http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/sources.htm, which comprises all deaths where the cause of death on the death certificate mentioned the word 'mesothelioma'. The statistics in this latest analysis are based on deaths in the register from 1968 to 2001.

4. Details of the mesothelioma projections can be found in a fact sheet available on the HSE website at http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/causdis/proj6801.pdf

5. This data is compiled, analysed and released in accordance with the National Statistics code of practice: www.statistics.gov.uk.

6. This analysis is the second major update to an analysis published in the Lancet [Peto, J. et al (1995). Continuing increase in mesothelioma in Great Britain. Lancet; 345: 535 -9], a collaborative effort with the Institute of Cancer Research. The first major update, in 2002, suggested an annual peak of between 1,450 and 2,000 deaths between the years 2008 and 2018. This used a more complex statistical model than was used in 1995. Our current analysis refines this model further.

7. Details of the first major update in 2002 were reported in the Regulatory Impact Assessment for the Duty to Manage Regulations (http://www.hse.gov.uk/ria/chemical/ria-176.pdf).

8. HSE has published two other fact sheets on mesothelioma deaths. The first was an analysis of the deaths by occupation, and showed males with the highest risk of mesothelioma were metal plate workers (includes shipyard workers) and vehicle body builders (includes railway carriage and locomotive building). Many of the other high risk occupations were associated with the construction industry. See http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/causdis/occ8000.pdf and http://www.hse.gov.uk/press/2003/e03077.htm. The second fact sheet was an analysis by geographical area. See http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/pdf/area8100.pdf and http://www.hse.gov.uk/press/2003/e03189.htm.

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